COP15 Latest
Posted on December 14, 2009 at 07:56 PM
While there was considerable trouble today as I arrived in Copenhagen, when the G77-China group of developing countries temporarily suspended talks, the mood in the city remains optimistic as participants attempt to work through the many and varied disagreements here over the next six days.
Division
The largest outstanding point of division remains emission cuts, with very few countries prepared to follow the EU's lead in committing to upward of 20% cuts in 1990 levels by 2020.
There is also the issue of facilitating and financing developing countries as they attempt to cut down on emissions, where the EU is also waiting for other potential major donors such as Japan and the US to match its own pledge, one of $3bn per year for the period 2010-2012 that it made on Friday.
The biggest diplomatic obstacle to success here this week remains the relationship between the EU and China, which remain the two largest emitters by far of carbon in the world. If a deal is to reached, the US and China need to reach agreement regarding the commitments of developing countries being open to international scrutiny - a move which China is currently against.
Finally, there is the issue of the two legal tracks being pursued during the talks. Developing countries are seeking to extend the “Kyoto Protocol”, which is the existing agreement, while the EU is pushing for a brand new “Long-term Cooperative Action” track. The EU believes that an extension to the Kyoto Protocol would leave some of the world's biggest emitters without targets for cutting emissions.
Early conclusions
Almost all nations are agreed that the respective offers on the table from the EU and the US, cuts of 4% and 20%, are not good enough. Most observers agree that the EU for its part needs to commit to a "30/30" approach, that is reductions of 30% and an offer of EUR30bn in development aid.
In an Irish context, we remain the second highest emitters per head in the EU, so a special effort is needed from the Irish delegation headed by John Gormley. Furthermore, there is enormous potential in Ireland for a Green revolution to boost our currently suffering economy.
